Atlanta Investor: 3 Numbers in My Underwriting Model That Just Moved

by Joshua Boyd

Hey Atlanta investor,

Two weeks ago I wrote that Atlanta had flipped from a seller's frenzy to a buyer-leverage market — inventory at the highest level since 2019, price growth stalling out, days-on-market stretching.

Last week's mid-May data went further:

Median sales price: ~$400,000, up only +2.2% YoY (effectively flat in real terms)
Active listings: ~18,745, +6.4% YoY — the highest since 2019
Pending contracts: -21.8% YoY — that's the buyer pause showing up in the numbers
Units sold: -5% YoY, -1.3% MoM
Months of supply: trending into the 4.0+ range — the technical floor of a "balanced" market

If you only read the headline that prices are "still up YoY," you'd miss the bigger story: the cost-side of every deal is moving the wrong way (insurance, property tax, holding costs, vacancy), while the price-side is doing none of the work.

So this week I sat down and rewrote three lines in my SFR underwriting spreadsheet. Here they are:

1) Max-offer multiplier: 0.75 → 0.70

The classic 75% Rule (Max Offer = ARV × 0.75 − Repairs) assumed a market where exits were fast and ARVs were dragged up by competition. In April 2026 Atlanta, exits are not fast. I've dropped to 0.70 on SFR deals and I'm walking from anything that doesn't pencil at that number.

2) Days-on-market assumption: 30 → 60

When DOM in your submarket is stretching, your holding period stretches with it. I'm now modeling 60-day exits minimum on flips and 45-day lease-ups on rentals — and budgeting holding costs at 8% of ARV instead of 6%.

3) Insurance: re-quote every deal, no exceptions

Insurance premiums in the Southeast have moved 20–40% in 24 months in some submarkets. The number you used in your last underwriting probably isn't current. Re-quote every deal. Get the bind quote BEFORE you remove your due-diligence contingency, not after closing.

Bonus — the reserves rule I'm not bending on:

6 months of PITI + management held in cash, separate from the operating account. In a slowing market, the deals that fail aren't the ones with bad ARVs — they're the ones without runway when the unexpected $7,400 roof or $11,000 HVAC hits in month four.

What I'm watching this week

The directional thesis hasn't changed — Atlanta is in a buyer's window. But the window opens further every week that inventory keeps climbing and pendings keep dropping. If you've been waiting for sellers to negotiate, they are. Now the discipline is on you to underwrite the deal that's in front of you, not the one you wish was in front of you.

I'll be running through three live Atlanta deals at the Dealmaker Atlanta meetup this Friday (May 22) — bring a deal you're stuck on and we'll rebuild it on the whiteboard together.

Build wealth. Build community. Build Atlanta.

— Josh
Dealmaker Atlanta